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erincandescent ⎔

For anyone trying to interpret Anthropic's S1 - the "Change in fair value of convertible notes, etc" line with the $72B loss as of June 2026? That's "we have given out a lot of options and the value of our shares have increased and hence these options are now worth more". No "actual" money has been lost here.

It's not nothing (as a protective shareholder you should be very much worried about dilution!) but their actual cash and asset loss over the period is ~€8B

On the operating side they are/were actually very close to profitability, though whether that holds with their recent price cuts is another matter!

Comments

erincandescent ⎔
(Oof, that's a bit messy. I need to fiddle a bit with how I render these things as standard.site documents...)
Graham Sutherland🎃 / Polynomial.pdf.exe

@erincandescent I figured something like that was going on. any idea what the $40B for the year previous is about? it seems like a huge jump in losses.

Graham Sutherland🎃 / Polynomial.pdf.exe

@erincandescent oh wait was that the Broadcom lending thing? hmm.

erincandescent ⎔
@gsuberland everything on that line is "the value of the debt we have issued has gone up", and as they say in footnote 2 this is mostly driven by an increase in the fair market value of Anthropic shares
erincandescent ⎔

@brettm The options are denominated in Anthropic shares. Anthropic fully has the ability to just print more shares, and they only need to print as many additional shares as they always did. Yes, Anthropic has due to circumstances (namely their own valuation increasing) acquired, over the last 6 months, a $72B liability, but they do not have to repay that liability with money or assets but instead with equity.

The only money that has been lost is that Anthropic would have otherwise hypothetically had the option of selling that same number of shares for $72B more money.

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